Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
